New Guinea, the world’s second-largest island, harbors an extraordinary variety of plant life across more than a dozen distinct ecoregions , including seasonally dry savannas, tropical rainforests, and lowland swamp forests. But in September and October 2026, as drought gripped New Guinea (sometimes called Papua) amid a strong El Niño , fires scorched the island and smoke shrouded large swaths of it for weeks.
新几内亚是世界第二大岛屿，十多个不同的生态区孕育着种类繁多的植物，包括季节性干燥的稀树草原、热带雨林和低地沼泽森林。但在 2026 年 9 月和 10 月，新几内亚（有时称为巴布亚）因厄尔尼诺现象而遭遇干旱，大火烧焦了该岛，烟雾笼罩了大片地区长达数周之久。
The VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-20 satellite captured this image of thick smoke streaming from the southern part of the island on October 11, 2026. In recent weeks, soaring levels of air pollution delayed and canceled flights , closed schools, and prompted officials in some areas to urge children and older people to wear masks.
NOAA-20 卫星上的 VIIRS（可见红外成像辐射计套件）于 2026 年 10 月 11 日捕捉到了这张从该岛南部喷出的浓烟图像。最近几周，空气污染水平飙升，导致航班延误和取消、学校关闭，并促使一些地区的官员敦促儿童和老年人戴口罩。
“Sometimes smoke that has drifted into the convection of nearby thunderstorms will get washed out or lofted up into the upper troposphere, but a lot of smoke stays near the surface and causes air quality problems,” said Robert Field, an associate research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University. “It’s a horrible situation.”
美国宇航局戈达德空间研究所和哥伦比亚大学的副研究科学家罗伯特·菲尔德说：“有时，飘入附近雷暴对流的烟雾会被冲走或上升到对流层上层，但大量烟雾仍停留在地表附近，导致空气质量问题。” “这是一个可怕的情况。”
According to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), a fire emissions monitoring system, fires in Papua New Guinea, on the eastern half of the island, had released nearly 32 megatons of carbon by October 17, more than any other year on record at that point in the year (charts above). “Emissions are already much higher than the 2015 total for the year, and it’s very likely that this will become the highest year on record for Papua New Guinea, even surpassing 1997,” said Guido van der Werf, a fire scientist at Wageningen University & Research.
根据火灾排放监测系统全球火灾排放数据库 (GFED) 的数据，截至 10 月 17 日，巴布亚新几内亚岛东半部的火灾已释放出近 32 兆吨的碳，比该年同期有记录的任何其他年份都要多（见上图）。瓦赫宁根大学研究中心火灾科学家 Guido van der Werf 表示：“这一年的排放量已经远高于 2015 年的排放总量，今年很可能成为巴布亚新几内亚有记录以来排放量最高的一年，甚至超过 1997 年。”
On the Indonesian side, sometimes called West New Guinea or Indonesian Papua, carbon emissions exceeded 35 megatons , the third highest after 2015 and 1997, other El Niño years with severe fires. Van der Werf led the development of GFED, a satellite-driven modeling framework that uses a mix of remote sensing , vegetation characteristics, and other information to estimate the extent of vegetation fires and the emissions over nearly three decades.
在印度尼西亚一侧，有时被称为西新几内亚或印度尼西亚巴布亚，碳排放量超过35兆吨，是继2015年和1997年以及其他厄尔尼诺年份发生严重火灾之后的第三高。 Van der Werf 领导了 GFED 的开发，这是一个卫星驱动的建模框架，它综合利用遥感、植被特征和其他信息来估计近三十年来植被火灾的范围和排放量。
Unusually dry weather—a byproduct of El Niño shifting rainfall patterns —has primed ecosystems across the island to burn. The southernmost part of Papua New Guinea, dominated by relatively fire-prone savannas and grasslands of the Trans-Fly region , went more than 90 consecutive days without rain, according to Papua New Guinea’s National Weather Service . Since August, parts of the region have seen precipitation of roughly 5 to 10 percent of normal, according to the weather service’s data. Local news outlets report that drought is causing crop failures , water shortages , and school disruptions .
异常干燥的天气——厄尔尼诺现象改变降雨模式的副产品——已经引发了全岛生态系统的燃烧。据巴布亚新几内亚国家气象局称，巴布亚新几内亚最南端的地区主要是相对易发生火灾的稀树草原和 Trans-Fly 地区的草原，该地区已连续 90 多天没有下雨。根据气象部门的数据，自 8 月以来，该地区部分地区的降水量约为正常水平的 5% 至 10%。当地新闻媒体报道称，干旱导致农作物歉收、水资源短缺和学校停课。
In this normally wet part of the world, people ignite the vast majority of fires, researchers say. Crop fires, pasture maintenance, deforestation and land clearing, and hunting are all common reasons people burn in New Guinea. In dry conditions, managed fires sometimes spread and burn uncontrolled as wildfires, particularly in the drier, southernmost parts of the island.
研究人员表示，在这个通常潮湿的地区，绝大多数火灾都是由人类点燃的。农作物火灾、牧场维护、森林砍伐和土地清理以及狩猎都是新几内亚人烧伤的常见原因。在干燥的条件下，受控制的火灾有时会像野火一样蔓延和燃烧，特别是在该岛最干燥的最南端地区。
“We’re seeing an exceptionally high level of fire activity in Papua New Guinea and Eastern Indonesia, particularly Indonesian Papua and Kalimantan, this year compared with Sumatra and other parts of Western Indonesia,” said Yang Chen, an associate researcher at the University of California, Irvine. “Papua has emerged as Indonesia’s new deforestation frontier.”
加州大学欧文分校副研究员杨晨说：“与苏门答腊岛和印度尼西亚西部其他地区相比，今年巴布亚新几内亚和印度尼西亚东部，特别是印度尼西亚巴布亚和加里曼丹的火灾活动异常频繁。” “巴布亚已成为印度尼西亚新的森林砍伐前沿。”
Over the past two decades , land in Indonesian Papua has been cleared for industrial oil palm and pulpwood plantations, shifting small-scale cultivation, urban expansion, and mining . According to Global Forest Watch, the region lost 27,000 hectares of primary forest in 2025, nearly double the 2024 total and the most since 2017.
在过去的二十年里，印度尼西亚巴布亚的土地被清理用于工业油棕和纸浆木材种植园，小规模种植、城市扩张和采矿业发生转变。据全球森林观察称，该地区到 2025 年将损失 27,000 公顷原始森林，几乎是 2024 年总面积的两倍，也是 2017 年以来的最大损失。
Sumatra’s fires are relatively low compared to other drought years partly because many areas are already developed. “Areas with large oil palm, sugarcane, or pulpwood plantations also often have their own private fire brigades to protect their assets,” said Field. “It’s in unmanaged areas or primary forest edges where we’re generally seeing the most fire.”
与其他干旱年份相比，苏门答腊岛的火灾相对较少，部分原因是许多地区已经开发。 “拥有大型油棕、甘蔗或纸浆种植园的地区通常也有自己的私人消防队来保护其资产，”菲尔德说。 “在无人管理的地区或原始森林边缘，我们通常会看到最多的火灾。”
Researchers expect the fires to continue until the heavy rains of the wet season arrive in the southern part of New Guinea, typically in early November.
研究人员预计，大火将持续到新几内亚南部雨季的大雨（通常是在 11 月初）到来。
NASA Earth Observatory image and charts by Michala Garrison, using data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE , GIBS/Worldview , Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Story by Adam Voiland.
NASA 地球观测站图像和图表由 Michala Garrison 提供，使用的数据来自 NASA EOSDIS LANCE、GIBS/Worldview、联合极地卫星系统 (JPSS) 和全球火灾排放数据库 (GFED)。亚当·沃伊兰的故事。