As of June 2026, El Niño has officially arrived . This naturally recurring phenomenon is characterized by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific along with changes to atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Its regional effects range from desert floods to delayed monsoons to shifts in where tropical cyclones are more likely to form.
截至2026年6月，厄尔尼诺现象正式到来。这种自然反复出现的现象的特点是赤道太平洋部分地区的水温高于正常水平，以及大气和海洋环流模式的变化。其区域影响范围从沙漠洪水到季风延迟，再到更有可能形成热带气旋的地区的变化。
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects the current El Niño to continue to strengthen through the end of 2026, with a 97 percent chance of lasting through early Northern Hemisphere spring 2027. Even during El Niño’s early stages, satellites have observed characteristic changes along the equatorial Pacific, such as warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and higher-than-normal sea surface height .
NOAA气候预测中心预计，当前的厄尔尼诺现象将持续加强到2026年底，有97%的机会持续到2027年北半球初春。即使在厄尔尼诺现象的早期阶段，卫星也观察到赤道太平洋沿线的特征变化，例如海面温度高于正常水平，海面高度高于正常水平。
Among the first ecological downstream effects are changes to the marine food web. The maps above show chlorophyll-a concentrations—the pigment present in most phytoplankton —as observed by the OCI (Ocean Color Instrument) on NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) satellite. In June 2025 (left), conditions were neutral, while in June 2026 (right), El Niño was strengthening.
第一个生态下游影响是海洋食物网的变化。上面的地图显示了叶绿素 a 浓度（大多数浮游植物中存在的色素），由 NASA PACE（浮游生物、气溶胶、云、海洋生态系统）卫星上的 OCI（海洋颜色仪器）观测到。 2025 年 6 月（左），情况为中性，而 2026 年 6 月（右），厄尔尼诺现象正在加强。
The most noticeable difference appears in the central Pacific, around the equator due north of New Zealand: chlorophyll concentrations, an indication of phytoplankton abundance, are substantially lower in 2026. This change is expected, said Matthew Kehrli and Graham Trolley, oceanographers in the Ocean Ecology Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. That’s because during an El Niño, easterly equatorial trade winds weaken, the warm surface layer of the ocean extends deeper, and the upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water that typically fuels phytoplankton growth is suppressed.
最明显的差异出现在新西兰正北赤道周围的太平洋中部：叶绿素浓度（浮游植物丰度的指标）在 2026 年大幅降低。美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心海洋生态实验室的海洋学家 Matthew Kehrli 和 Graham Trolley 表示，这一变化是预料之中的。这是因为在厄尔尼诺现象期间，东赤道信风减弱，温暖的海洋表层延伸得更深，通常促进浮游植物生长的凉爽、营养丰富的海水的上涌受到抑制。
As the El Niño progresses, the scientists anticipate the differences in the central Pacific will become more pronounced. “This may manifest as a greater difference in values across the current region, as a broadening region of reduced surface chlorophyll-a concentration, or both, depending on the behavior of the equatorial trade winds,” they said.
随着厄尔尼诺现象的进展，科学家预计太平洋中部的差异将变得更加明显。他们说：“这可能表现为当前区域的数值差异更大，表面叶绿素a浓度降低的区域扩大，或者两者兼而有之，具体取决于赤道信风的行为。”
Reductions in phytoplankton have ripple effects through the marine food web, including in coastal regions. Less food is available for zooplankton , as well as for fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. Peru’s anchovy fisheries have seen profound declines in catch during past El Niños, driven similarly by warmer surface waters, reduced upwelling, and lower phytoplankton abundance. In 2026, Peru’s Ministry of Production repeatedly suspended the fishery to safeguard the country’s main fishing resource. Pelicans have been seen venturing into Peruvian ports and urban areas in search of food.
浮游植物的减少会对整个海洋食物网产生连锁反应，包括沿海地区。浮游动物以及鱼类、海鸟和海洋哺乳动物的食物越来越少。在过去的厄尔尼诺现象期间，秘鲁的鳀鱼渔业捕捞量大幅下降，同样是由于地表水变暖、上升流减少和浮游植物丰度降低所致。 2026年，秘鲁生产部多次暂停渔业，以保护该国主要渔业资源。人们曾看到鹈鹕冒险进入秘鲁港口和城市地区寻找食物。
Although the disruptions to marine life can be severe, a post-El Niño “chlorophyll rebound,” with higher-than-normal concentrations in the equatorial Pacific, can occur. Research suggests that higher iron concentrations delivered in ocean currents, as well as dust arriving from drier land in parts of Central and South America, help fuel the resurgence—a rebound that doesn’t require a follow-on La Niña. La Niña, which often follows El Niño events, can also produce elevated chlorophyll concentrations. A strong La Niña in 1998–1999 set off a large phytoplankton bloom in the eastern Pacific and a dramatic increase in fish populations.
尽管对海洋生物的破坏可能很严重，但厄尔尼诺现象后的“叶绿素反弹”可能会发生，赤道太平洋的叶绿素浓度高于正常水平。研究表明，洋流中铁浓度较高，以及来自中美洲和南美洲部分干旱地区的尘埃，有助于推动经济复苏——这种反弹不需要后续的拉尼娜现象。厄尔尼诺事件后经常出现的拉尼娜现象也会导致叶绿素浓度升高。 1998年至1999年的强烈拉尼娜现象引发了东太平洋浮游植物的大量繁殖和鱼类种群的急剧增加。
Scientists have new tools available for studying this sort of variability. The PACE mission launched in February 2024, making this the first complete El Niño event for which the satellite will gather global, near-daily hyperspectral measurements. “The scientific community will be able to observe the 2026 El Niño with data across more wavelengths of light than ever before,” Kehrli and Trolley said.
科学家们拥有可用于研究这种变异性的新工具。 PACE 任务于 2024 年 2 月启动，这使其成为首次完整的厄尔尼诺事件，卫星将为此收集近乎每日的全球高光谱测量数据。 Kehrli 和 Trolley 表示：“科学界将能够利用比以往更多波长的光数据来观测 2026 年厄尔尼诺现象。”
To better understand effects on life in the ocean, researchers hope to use PACE data to gauge the responses of specific phytoplankton communities to El Niño. And the possibilities extend beyond the marine realm, the scientists note. PACE’s sensors can measure plant pigment composition on land and clouds and aerosols in the atmosphere, all of which are influenced by El Niño.
为了更好地了解对海洋生命的影响，研究人员希望利用 PACE 数据来衡量特定浮游植物群落对厄尔尼诺现象的反应。科学家们指出，这种可能性超出了海洋领域。 PACE的传感器可以测量陆地和云层上的植物色素成分以及大气中的气溶胶，所有这些都受到厄尔尼诺现象的影响。
NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using PACE data from the NASA Ocean Biology Distributed Active Archive Center OB.DAAC and processed by Matthew Kehrli. Story by Lindsey Doermann.
NASA 地球观测站图像由 Michala Garrison 拍摄，使用来自 NASA 海洋生物学分布式主动档案中心 OB.DAAC 的 PACE 数据，并由 Matthew Kehrli 处理。林赛·杜尔曼的故事。